The overlooked battleground in the new order

TRAVELLED from Amritsar to Dharamshala by car and decided to leave Kashmir to another time where I could give it justice. It's breathtaking. One week later, my host put the headlines in front of me. They are still very confusing and uncomfortable.

- 

You can think of Kashmir as conflict and headlines, but behind the noise is something far less discussed and far more critical to the new global economic race now reshaping a potential post-dollar world.

The real battle for Kashmir isn’t just about land or nationalism anymore. It's about water, minerals, supply chains and, crucially, who controls the future of global finance.

Kashmir's river systems, the Indus, Jhelum and Chenab, are among the most vital freshwater arteries in South Asia.

With rising droughts, food insecurity, freshwater is quietly becoming what oil was in the 20th century the resource nations will fight to secure.

Control over Kashmir’s rivers influence the agriculture of hundreds of millions downstream in India and Pakistan.

It shapes hydropower generation for two nuclear-armed nations.

And it could, in time, back new forms of trade finance if water becomes collateralised in future commodity-backed financial systems, as some BRICS+ economists are already discussing (see previous article).

The Indus Waters Treaty has kept these rivers flowing peacefully since 1960 through wars, coups and crises. Kashmir’s “blue gold” is increasingly strategic.

Then, there is the lithium. In 2023, India confirmed the discovery of an estimated 5.9 million tonnes of lithium ore in Kashmir's Reasi district. While its only c0.3% of known global reserves once refined, the location is what makes it explosive.