Ukraine's coming winter of decision

Ukraine's stunning recent counteroffensive marks a turn, but not yet a turning point, in the war with Russia

- Richard Haas

KYIV - Russia's war against Ukraine, which President Vladimir Putin began in 2014 and expanded in February, has taken a dramatic turn following Ukrainian forces' liberation, in less than a week, of some 8,800 square kilometres of territory in the country's north-eastern Kharkiv district.

Russian strategists, apparently focused on the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive in the country's south, were unprepared for the attacks, and Russia's poorly trained and poorly led troops were no match for their highly competent and motivated Ukrainian counterparts.

What happened was a turn, but not yet a turning point, in the war. It is too soon to extrapolate from Ukraine's gains in one area, much less conclude that what happened in Kharkiv is a harbinger for the entire country. Russia still occupies the vast majority of the territory it seized in 2014 and subsequently, and many Russians regard Crimea in particular as being theirs. This suggests that taking it back would prove extremely difficult, especially as more military force is required to conduct offensive operations than to defend. Still, what Ukraine has accomplished is significant by any measure and has led to a major shift in thinking within the Ukrainian government, as I learnt firsthand in Kyiv.

Months ago, the goal for many Ukrainians was the survival of an independent, viable Ukraine even if the state was not in possession of all its territory. But the government's war aims - the definition of what constitutes victory - are becoming more ambitious, owing to Russian brutality and Ukrainian forces' recent territorial gains.