Suburban voters swing Harris' way in turnaround, polling shows

Trump was leading Biden among suburban residents, middle-income households

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WASHINGTON – Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has erased Republican rival Donald Trump's advantage in the vast middle of American society: suburban residents and middle-income households, an analysis of Reuters/Ipsos polling shows.

Since President Joe Biden ended his flagging re-election bid on July 21, Vice-President Harris has pulled into the lead in both of these large demographic groups, reinvigorating Democrats' prospects in the Nov 5 election, though the race remains exceptionally close.

Suburbanites, who make up about half of the US electorate and are as racially diverse as the nation at large, are a key prize. Mr Biden beat Trump in suburban counties by about six percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.

Before Mr Biden dropped out, Trump was leading 43 per cent to 40 per cent among suburbanites in Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in June and July, reflecting the Democrat's struggle to energise supporters.

Ms Harris began closing the gap when she launched her campaign in July and led Trump 47 per cent to 41 per cent among suburban voters in polling across September and October.

That represents a nine-point swing in the Democrat's favour, according to the analysis of six Reuters/Ipsos polls that included responses from over 6,000 registered voters.

Over the same periods, Trump went from leading Mr Biden 44 per cent to 37 per cent among voters in households that earn between US$50,000 (S$65,000) and $100,000 – roughly the middle third of the nation – to trail behind Ms Harris 43 per cent to 45 per cent, also a nine-point swing away from Trump. The figures had margins of error of around 3 percentage points.

Trump carried this group 52 per cent to 47 per cent in 2020, according to a Pew Research Centre analysis of exit polls.