As in 1914, when Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife were assassinated in a moment which led to the first world war, these were shots that were heard around the world, even if few can agree conclusively on what they portend.
By one de minimis account, Tehran was merely sending a warning shot with its attack last Saturday, almost taking its ballistic missiles out for a weekend test drive. The maximalist version is that this was a state-on-state assault designed to change the rules of the Middle East. By this assessment, Iran was prepared to risk turning Israel into a miniDresden in 1945 and was only thwarted by Israeli strategic defences and, crucially, the extraordinary cooperation between the US, Israel and Sunni Gulf allies.
Whatever Iran's intention, its assault and now Israel's counterattack have presented the Gulf states with dilemmas, according to Hugh Lovatt of the European Council on Foreign Relations. How they respond may determine the outcome of the crisis.
The key question is: do the Sunni monarchies led by Saudi Arabia fear Iran and its proxies more than they detest Israel and the damage it is inflicting on Palestinians and regional stability? For the past six months that choice has been suppressed, as Iran and the Sunni states have forged a fragile united front. In January, Saudi Arabia ensured Iran had a seat at the table through a joint meeting of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and the Gulf Cooperation Council.
Nevertheless the two sides have resolute disagreements - over a role for Hamas, a two-state solution and whether state boycotts or disinvestment, once a common tool of the Arab states against Israel, should be used to put the pressure on Israel that Joe Biden was not willing to deploy. Equally, Iran has made no secret of its desire to see the US driven from the region, a vision the Gulf states do not share.
Diese Geschichte stammt aus der April 20, 2024-Ausgabe von The Guardian.
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