Why Iran thinks it won the war despite huge military losses

When Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire only hours before President Trump had vowed to unleash punishing new attacks, it was in many ways a moment of triumph for the battered regime.

- David S. Cloud

Iran's regime has survived and may possess a new strategic prize in the Strait of Hormuz.

(AP)

Tehran emerged from 38 days of war against the U.S. and Israel having won not only its primary goal—its own survival—but also two potential strategic gains: control of the Strait of Hormuz and a newly established deterrence against large-scale attacks by its longtime adversaries.

Despite huge military losses, Iran’s stranglehold on the vital waterway for 20% of the world’s oil exports won't be broken anytime soon.

Tehran’s asymmetric tactics were carefully planned to offset U.S. and Israeli military advantages, raising the pressure on Trump to halt the conflict. The ceasefire went into effect without the U.S. and Israel attaining far-reaching goals such as toppling the regime, eliminating Iran’s nuclear program and ending its ability to threaten its neighbors.

“What Iran did, systematically and deliberately, was hurt the U.S. economy” by closing down Hormuz and spiking the price of oil globally, said Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and Tran effort at the Middle East Institute. In response to Trump’s effort to bring down the regime, “they made sure the war was felt in the U.S.”

For that reason, he added, “I don’t think Trump’s going to try that again.”

The White House said it had halted offensive operations, but Iran’s attacks on neighboring Arab states in the Persian Gulf hadn’t stopped Wednesday, an indication that the ceasefire still faces obstacles and that it could collapse before taking hold.

Iranian officials were quick to declare victory, insisting in a statement by the country’s national-security council that their longtime adversaries had suffered “an undeniable, historic, and crushing defeat.” Pro-government demonstrators took to the streets after the ceasefire announcement, waving flags and chanting slogans.