WHO WILL BE THE NEXT POPE?

A LIST OF CONTENDERS WHO MIGHT LEAD THE ROMAN CATHOLIC CHURCH

- STORY: EMMA BUBOLA, ELISABETTA POVOLEDO, GAIA PIANIGIANI AND NEIL MACFARQUHAR / NYT

Guesses about who the next Roman Catholic pope will be often prove inaccurate. Before the selection of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers had not even counted him among the front-runners.

This time, predictions are further complicated because Francis made many appointments in a relatively short amount of time during his tenure, diversifying the College of Cardinals and making it harder to identify movements and factions within the group.

Still, discussion of potential names began long ago behind the Vatican’s walls, and observers are predicting several possibilities.

Some are seen as likely to build on Francis’ progressive agenda, while others would represent a return to a more traditional style. Experts also suggest that the college might favour a prelate with experience in the complexities of international relations.

Here are some contenders.

PIERBATTISTA PIZZABALLA

Cardinal Pierbattista Pizzaballa, 60, an Italian who is the Vatican's top official for Middle East affairs, is considered a possible front-runner. Although he became a cardinal only in 2023, his experience in one of the world’s most heated conflict zones helped him rise to prominence.

Pizzaballa would be the first Italian pope since John Paul I in 1978, but experts say he is also considered an international figure and removed from Vatican politics, having spent much of his career in Jerusalem.

He has also generally steered clear of polemics about doctrine, which experts say could help him secure the necessary two-thirds majority in the College of Cardinals, although some think he may be considered too young for the role.

PIETRO PAROLIN

Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, has been Pope Francis’ second-in-command since 2013, when Francis made him secretary of state. In that role, the cardinal is in charge of overseeing internal church affairs and guiding foreign policy.