Exponential Truth Trumps Linear Lies

Governments and health officials are often tempted to under-report the number of infections. But when figures grow exponentially, you can’t hide them for long

- Bhagwan Chowdhry

MANY physical as well as financial processes grow or decay exponentially. For example, most people after the Covid pandemic have heard or read that the number of people infected with the virus increases exponentially. Many people believe that exponential growth means rapid growth. But few realise the substantive and remarkable implications of this beyond that.

A constant exponential growth mathematically implies that the amount by which a quantity—number of people infected, amount of money invested—increases is higher when the amount you already have is more. Also, the time it takes for the amount, which compounds every day, every month or every year, to become double the initial amount (or half of the initial amount in case of constant exponential decay for radioactive materials) remains constant. This has profound implications.