Industry Signals - Global Sulfur Cap Brings Uncertainty Over Fuel Prices, Blending
Professional Mariner|December / January 2020
It has taken decades to build the fuel supply chain for the 50,000-vessel global merchant fleet. The pending 0.5 percent sulfur cap on marine fuel stands to upset this entrenched structure, with price volatility likely as a result.
Sam Bojarski
Industry Signals - Global Sulfur Cap Brings Uncertainty Over Fuel Prices, Blending

To comply with a 2016 regulation enacted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), vessels must either treat their exhaust, use an alternative fuel such as liquefied natural gas (LNG), or begin using fuel oil containing 0.5 percent sulfur or less by Jan. 1, 2020. Contained in Annex VI to the International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL), the regulation reduces the sulfur limit from its current level of 3.5 percent. In response, fuel suppliers have adjusted refining processes, while operators are adapting to changes in fuel prices and quality before the cap takes effect.

The sulfur cap forces bluewater operators in the United States to decide between opting for compliant fuel or burning high-sulfur fuel oil (HSFO) while using a scrubber system that removes sulfur oxide from exhaust, according to Kathy Metcalf, president, and CEO of the Chamber of Shipping of America (CSA).

“Either option comes at a cost to a vessel’s budget, although it is predicted that scrubbers would pay for themselves ... no longer than three years from the initial investment and installation,” she told Professional Mariner.

Installing a scrubber can cost anywhere from $2 million to $5 million. According to Metcalf, the expected price of compliant fuel could increase next year by at least 30 percent over current HSFO prices.

Vessels sailing within 200 nautical miles of the U.S. and Canadian coasts will continue to comply with the 0.1 percent Emission Control Area (ECA) sulfur limit that has existed since 2015. Given this history, Chamber of Marine Commerce President Bruce Burrows said he does not foresee many compliance issues in Canada next year. While most Canadian operators have decided to burn compliant fuel, he said the scrubber decision largely depends on fuel costs.

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