Investment Themes 2017-20

TRUMP, TECH and geopolitics form a volatile mix. Traders love the roller coaster. But how do you step back, see the big picture and invest with a longer time horizon?

Last month I spent three weeks on the road (and over water) on a Forbes Cruise for Investors from Singapore to Hong Kong, with port calls in Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and China, trying to spot longer range profit. Here are nine themes.

- Rich Karlgaard

 

-Emerging markets. Mark Mobius, Franklin Templeton’s emerging-markets bull for the last 30 years, visits 70 countries a year in a Gulfstream V. The busy traveler says emerging-market stocks are generally priced 25% cheaper than American stocks by P/E. The returns have been higher, but, of course, so has the volatility. Cambodia is the poorest of the southeast Asian countries we visited. Big rewards, big risks, says Mobius. Vietnam is on a roll and is a safer bet. 

-Dividends, Part 1. With U.S. markets at a 26 trailing P/E ratio, it’s a good time to become selective—and to get paid while enduring the occasional correction. John Buckingham, whose value-and-dividend fund has outperformed both the S&P and Warren Buffett over the last 15 years, likes Apple, Allianz, Amgen, AT&T, Boeing, Cisco, Corning, Disney, Fluor, Intel, Royal Caribbean and Target. Buckingham takes a three-to-five-year horizon on his stock picks.