O-Shaped Hole In The Opposition

Despite renewed efforts to regroup, the Opposition remains scattered without a galvanising leader or winning script for Lok Sabha 2019

- Ajit Kumar Jha

Glance at the picture above: a smiling Congress president and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi flanked by a beaming West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and an array of opposition leaders representing a rainbow coalition. Sonia and Mamata constitute the nucleus of the new grand alliance taking shape in the Opposition after the brazen return of Bihar chief minister Nitish Kumar to the NDA camp. The picture provides hope for opposition politics to coalesce around a new nucleus of ‘secular politics’. However, the Mood of the Nation (MOTN) survey reveals that in a typical bipolar contest, the grand alliance is at a clear disadvantage. This was evident during the presidential election, when NDA candidate Ram Nath Kovind had a disproportionate advantage over his opposition challenger Meira Kumar. A repeat took place during the vice presidential election. Moreover, in a direct contest, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charismatic personality and powerful oratorical skills tower over the collective personalities of the opposition leaders.

The opposition leaders seem to be working on a simple assumption. If one were to add up the popular votes the respective parties gained in the latest assembly polls, it would point to the potential of a formidable alliance at the state level. Take the case of two states. In Uttar Pradesh, the votes of the Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party and Rashtriya Lok Dal, who are all part of the grand alliance, along with that of the Congress in the 2017 assembly elections make up almost 51 per cent of the popular votes. The argument would be that such an alliance could easily beat the BJP.