The Peculiar Blindness Of Experts
The Atlantic|June 2019

Credentialed authorities are comically bad at predicting the future. But reliable forecasting is possible.

David Epstein
The Peculiar Blindness Of Experts

THE BET WAS ON, and it was over the fate of humanity. On one side was the Stanford biologist Paul R. Ehrlich. In his 1968 best seller, The Population Bomb, Ehrlich insisted that it was too late to prevent a doomsday apocalypse resulting from overpopulation. Resource shortages would cause hundreds of millions of starvation deaths within a decade. It was cold, hard math: The human population was growing exponentially; the food supply was not. Ehrlich was an accomplished butterfly specialist. He knew that nature did not regulate animal populations delicately. Populations exploded, blowing past the available resources, and then crashed.

In his book, Ehrlich played out hypothetical scenarios that represented “the kinds of disasters that will occur.” In the worst-case scenario, famine rages across the planet. Russia, China, and the United States are dragged into nuclear war, and the resulting environmental degradation soon extinguishes the human race. In the “cheerful” scenario, population controls begin. Famine spreads, and countries teeter, but the major death wave ends in the mid-1980s. Only half a billion or so people die of starvation. “I challenge you to create one more optimistic,” Ehrlich wrote, adding that he would not count scenarios involving benevolent aliens bearing care packages.

This story is from the June 2019 edition of The Atlantic.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.

This story is from the June 2019 edition of The Atlantic.

Start your 7-day Magzter GOLD free trial to access thousands of curated premium stories, and 8,500+ magazines and newspapers.

MORE STORIES FROM THE ATLANTICView All
Saint Dismas
The Atlantic

Saint Dismas

Carlito held one end of the rope, Omar the other.

time-read
10+ mins  |
April 2024
Why Do Animals Play?
The Atlantic

Why Do Animals Play?

Scientists want an evolutionary explanation. But maybe the answer is simply: Its fun.

time-read
8 mins  |
April 2024
The Insider
The Atlantic

The Insider

Is Kara Swisher tearing down tech billionaires—or burnishing their legends?

time-read
10 mins  |
April 2024
A Bloody Retelling of Huckleberry Finn
The Atlantic

A Bloody Retelling of Huckleberry Finn

Percival Everett transforms Mark Twain’ classic.

time-read
9 mins  |
April 2024
THE SECRET GOSPEL
The Atlantic

THE SECRET GOSPEL

A Columbia history professor claimed that he discovered a sacred text with shocking details about the life of Jesus. Was it real?

time-read
10+ mins  |
April 2024
AFTER THE MIRACLE
The Atlantic

AFTER THE MIRACLE

Cystic fibrosis once guaranteed an early deathbut a medical breakthrough has given many patients a chance to live decades longer than expected. What do they do now?

time-read
10+ mins  |
April 2024
JODIE FOSTER'S LIFE ON-SCREEN
The Atlantic

JODIE FOSTER'S LIFE ON-SCREEN

SINCE CHILDHOOD, SHE'S STRUGGLED WITH ONE QUESTION: HOW MUCH DOES SHE WANT THE PUBLIC TO KNOW HER?

time-read
10+ mins  |
April 2024
THE END OF THE GOLDEN AGE
The Atlantic

THE END OF THE GOLDEN AGE

ANTI-SEMITISM ON THE RIGHT AND THE LEFT THREATENS TO END AN UNPRECEDENTED PERIOD OF SAFETY AND PROSPERITY FOR JEWISH AMERICANS-AND DEMOLISH THE LIBERAL ORDER THEY HELPED ESTABLISH.

time-read
10+ mins  |
April 2024
The Radio Squirrels of Point Reyes
The Atlantic

The Radio Squirrels of Point Reyes

\"Calling all. This is our last cry before our eternal silence.\" With that, in January 1997, the French Coast Guard transmitted its final message in Morse code.

time-read
2 mins  |
April 2024
THE GRUMPY ECONOMY
The Atlantic

THE GRUMPY ECONOMY

Why Americans trust feelings more than facts when it comes to prosperity

time-read
9 mins  |
April 2024