The Art Of The Nuclear Deal

On the brink of war with North Korea, will Donald Trump make a historic pact with Beijing?

- Bill Powell

IT WAS AN AUDACIOUS MOVE, ONE OF THE riskiest in the history of modern diplomacy. In 1972, when China was desperately poor and largely insular, President Richard Nixon, a staunch Cold Warrior, traveled to Beijing for historic meetings with Mao Zedong, the father of the Communist revolution there. At the time, the U.S. recognized neighboring Taiwan and its leaders, whom Mao had vanquished, as the true rulers of China. But the goal of Nixon’s visit was to change course. As Henry Kissinger, the architect of the president’s strategy later put it, “We wanted to see whether the beginning of reconciliation was possible.”

So it was telling that Kissinger, now old and frail, was in the White House in October to meet with Donald Trump. The administration is in the middle of a monthlong review of its China policy—one it will complete before the president embarks on a trip to East Asia in November. The timing is important. China, the United States, Japan and South Korea are all gravely concerned about North Korea and its growing arsenal of nuclear weapons, and the progress it has made in delivering them on missiles.

Trump’s bellicose “fire and fury” rhetoric and cryptic warnings (this is “the calm before the storm” he told a military gathering in early October) have unnerved not only U.S. allies but also Beijing. (The aggressive North Korean responses have had a similar effect.) Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and Defense Secretary James Mattis have been far more diplomatic than their boss, leaving the Chinese wondering, Is this a good cop–bad cop strategy? Or is the new president just nuts?