Given the Fiscal Constraint, the Finance Minister Ended Up Walking the Predictable Path
The widespread excitement, anxiety and anticipation built around the Union Budget every year is uncalled for and entirely misplaced. Budgets are statement of accounts of a nation and a plan for expenditure and revenue for the upcoming year. As such, these are expected to be broadly predictable if not outright boring. In a world of economic and geopolitical uncertainty, predictability and certainty of policy is underrated. In that regard, one needs to have some appreciation for Arun Jaitley’s fourth Budget. As such, the high points as well as the low points are things that the Budget has not done. The most commendable thing though is something that the government did not do. It did not resort to rampant populism with the intention to influence the outcome of the upcoming state elections.
POLICY STABILITY AND MACRO SIGNALING
The government has followed conservative practices as dictated by orthodox economics to remain on the path of fiscal consolidation. The fiscal deficit is targeted to be at 3.2% of FY18 nominal GDP, which is anticipated to be at 11% over FY17 (current fiscal) nominal GDP. While the GDP level may end up showing a downward bias, the government effort may get appreciative nods from the bond market and currency traders. To that extent, the rupee will remain strong, which is never a bad thing since India is a net importer.
CONTINUATION OF INFRA-RURAL FOCUS
This story is from the OLB February 17, 2017 edition of Outlook Business.
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This story is from the OLB February 17, 2017 edition of Outlook Business.
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