Oscar's More Diverse Electorate: Who Wins?

A fresh class of younger and foreign voters makes these four categories a different competition.

- Stephen Galloway

On June 29, the film Academy made a bold and unprecedented move, opening its doors to 683 new members, including the likes of actors Idris Elba, John Boyega, Freida Pinto, Michael B. Jordan and Alicia Vikander, along with writers such as Tina Fey and directors including Dee Rees, Abdellatif Kechiche and Abbas Kiarostami.

Now these younger, more diverse members — or at least the ones who have joined the Academy (Kiarostami died days after the announcement) — could reshape the Oscar race, especially in categories where nominees are separated by a thimbleful of votes. The question is how.

First, a little math. There were 6,261 voting members at the last reported count a year ago. With the incoming class, the number currently stands at 6,734, an increase of more than 7.5 percent. Given that not all the older members vote (certainly not in all categories), one might expect the incoming group to have a disproportionate impact, with their eagerness to participate and keenness to have their voices heard. But there are complications.

The newcomers are often based abroad and frequently indie-skewing. For instance, of the freshman class, 283 represent “international” members, which means they largely work in the 59 countries from which they hail. While Oscar campaigners will try to reach them with screeners, many have no access to regular screenings or Academy events, confounding any attempt to predict their impact.

Here are four representative categories which may serve as a test for how the new members impact the larger race.

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