THE PROBLEM WITH MOST&nbsp;market indicators is that they can shift on a dime. Investors, for instance, may seem utterly confident about the economy one day&mdash;until the Dow plunges more than 1,000 points in a week, at which time that assuredness goes away. Yet there is one indicator with a great record at predicting the mood several months out: housing starts.&ldquo;Housing starts are a terrific&nbsp;leading indicator of the economy,&rdquo; says Terri&nbsp;Spath, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management. To begin with, housing&mdash;and all the ancillary spending associated with the purchase of a home, including utilities&mdash; is a huge part of the economy, representing roughly one-sixth of total U.S. gross domestic product.And new-home construction is a unique bellwether. Since it can take months to plan, build, and sell a new&nbsp;house,&nbsp;home&nbsp;builders&nbsp;will be reluctant to break ground on a project if there&rsquo;s any hint of an economic slowdown ahead.Plus, new-home construction is tied to longer-term consumer confidence. &ldquo;Who wants to engage in the biggest investment of their life&mdash;buying a house&mdash;if they&rsquo;re worried about losing their job?&rdquo; asks Sam&nbsp;Stovall, chief investment strategist for the research firm&nbsp;CFRA. That&rsquo;s why before every recession since 1960, housing starts saw a significant decline.What is this indicator signaling today?In February, housing starts tumbled unexpectedly&mdash;by 7% compared with January and 4% vs. the prior year&mdash;raising red flags. It&rsquo;s still too soon to panic, though.&nbsp;Stovall&nbsp;found that in the months leading up to past recessions, the typical&nbsp;year-over&nbsp;year&nbsp;drop in housing starts averaged around 25%.But other data suggest there&rsquo;s softness in housing that could spill over into starts later on.New-home sales fell more than expected in January, by 7.8%, while existing-home sales slumped 4.8% vs. the same period a year ago. That marked the steepest decline since August 2014, according to the National Association of Realtors.Another canary in the coal mine: Home Depot&rsquo;s shares have sunk 16% since late January, twice as much as the S&amp;P 500. Investors could view the slowdown in real estate as a sign of future headwinds for the biggest home-improvement chain. In other words, Home Depot stock could be a leading indicator of housing starts, which are a leading indicator for the market and economy.

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{{magzter}} is the World's largest and fastest growing self-service, cross-platform digital newsstand with over 87 million users since its inception in 2011 and thousands of magazines and newspapers across 40+ categories and 60+ languages. Headquartered in New York, Magzter has its local presence in Amsterdam, London, Mexico City, Chennai, Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru, Singapore, and will soon be expanding to other countries. Founded by global entrepreneurs, Girish Ramdas and Vijay Radhakrishnan in June 2011, Magzter enables magazine and newspaper publishers around the world to create and deliver digital editions of their titles to global consumers.