A Year On, The Strategic Impact Of Art 370 Decision

J&K is now largely quiet, stable and progressively improving in governance. But 30 years of sponsored instability has certain roots that cannot be removed in a year

- LT Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (RETD)

On 5 August 2019, the Indian government took two momentous decisions. The long-standing Constitutional provisions providing exclusivity to the state of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) within the Union of India were diluted and the state was divided into two administrative units as Union Territories (UTs) of J&K and Ladakh. The decisions were expected to produce considerable turbulence in J&K, but precautions taken well in time prevented that. A proactive diplomatic campaign succeeded in neutralising Pakistan’s attempts to internationalise the issue. Its narratives allege that India’s unilateral decisions to fully integrate J&K are illegal in light of the UN Resolutions of 1948. It continues to follow this line and is unlikely to accept the new status quo.

On the first anniversary of the bold decisions, J&K is largely quiet, stable and progressively improving in governance. The socio-economic environment has had a raft of measures undertaken by the Central and UT governments. Although there can never be a reversal of the decision, nothing should be taken for granted; lasting peace and tranquility requires more than just peripheral stability. After all, 30 years of sponsored instability has certain roots that cannot be removed in a year. India’s geostrategic location, the neighbourhood it exists in, its demographic divide and, more than anything else, the strategic confidence it has undoubtedly gained through these decisions, all open up a Pandora’s box of threats. An assessment of these in the strategic and, to an extent, operational domain is thus necessary.