Will Trump End the War in Ukraine in 100 Days?

24 hours, 100 days, six months: While the targets shift, a key question is whether the end of the conflict will be peace or a sellout.

- Jonathan Eyal

Of all the major decisions facing US President-elect Donald Trump, few appear more urgent and consequential than his determination to end the war in Ukraine.

During the election campaign, Trump often dismissed the Ukraine war as a vicious little European conflict which, supposedly, only came about because outgoing President Joe Biden was weak, a conflict in which the US has no reason to remain engaged and one which needlessly consumes America's already over-stretched financial resources.

Pulling the plug on the entire enterprise was, therefore, not only the fastest way to stop the killing but also—at least according to Trump—a straightforward matter: the war would come to an end "within 24 hours" after he returned to the White House, the President-elect famously pledged.

But now, senior officials in the incoming Trump administration are grudgingly admitting that things are not as straightforward as their boss once claimed. How the Ukraine war ends will determine not only the strategic postures of Russia and the US—the holders of the world's biggest nuclear arsenals—but also the nature of the relationship between America and Europe, still the world's most extensive trade and investment link.

Unsurprisingly, key members of the incoming administration are already beating a hasty retreat from Trump's rash campaign promises. Retired General Keith Kellogg, appointed by Trump as his special envoy for Ukraine, now claims he will need "100 days" to ensure that "the solution" to the war is "solid and sustainable." The President-elect has gone even further, suggesting in recent media interviews that "six months" was a more realistic target to end the war.

In reality, nobody knows because a halt to the current bloodshed will depend not only on the Trump administration's opinions but also on battlefield developments and on the calculations of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who started this war by invading Ukraine almost three years ago.