Will Russia's economy force a reality check on Putin's Ukraine invasion?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has doubled down on his demands that Ukraine must give up large chunks of its territory in return for a ceasefire in the war between the two nations.

- Jonathan Eyal

The headquarters of Russian giant Lukoil in Moscow. Russian oil revenues declined in October by 14 per cent in volume terms, and around 8.6 per cent in prices. It is estimated that Russia has lost around 22 per cent of its energy revenues, as both China and India are now cutting their purchases of Russian oil and gas.

(PHOTO: AFP)

Speaking to reporters on Nov 27 during a visit to the Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan, Mr Putin said he would halt its military offensive only if Ukrainian forces withdrew from land Russia covets.

“If Ukrainian troops leave the territories they occupy, then we will stop fighting,” he said. “If they don’t, we will achieve our aims militarily,” he said, repeating the hardline negotiating position he has maintained throughout this crisis.

However, Ukraine’s European allies are arguing that, after almost four years of intensive fighting, Russia’s economy is in a bad shape and that Mr Putin will soon have to pursue a ceasefire even if he gets no concessions from Ukraine.

And some top Russian officials are now also starting to admit in public that the war is inflicting a high cost on their country’s economy.

Russia remains tight-lipped about the human cost of its invasion. Deaths of Russian soldiers are seldom reported, and the country’s journalists are discouraged from covering military funerals or the plight of bereaved families.

However, a database compiled by Russian dissident media outlet Mediazona, in cooperation with the BBC, indicates that around 150,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since February 2022, when Mr Putin ordered the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

The figure is based on monitoring social media posts as well as publicly available death certificates.