Trump's Arm-Twisting on Trade Gives Businesses Little Clarity on Way Forward

In fact, his recent announcements on trade deals with Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan raise more questions and doubts.

- Deborah Elms

US President Donald Trump has spent his first six months in office determined to remake the global trade landscape.

This week, he announced three new trade deals with Asian partners that will result in dramatically higher tariff levels applied to imports as well as new market openings for American exports.

A lack of detail beyond his short statements and limited confirmation of the terms from trade partners, however, makes it hard to determine how and how much trade flows might be impacted in the coming months and years. While businesses keep hoping for clarity, even deal announcements are not delivering enough information to ease decision-making.

MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS

The first agreements in the region are now coming into view with announcements on Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines and Japan. In each case, Mr. Trump has used social media to indicate closure of negotiations. His counterparts have either released limited details or none at all.

This makes it impossible to discern the actual commitments reached. Mr. Trump has given out headline "reciprocal" tariff numbers of 20 percent for Vietnam, 19 percent for Indonesia and the Philippines, and 15 percent for Japan, presumably to be applied starting on August 1. Many of these figures have not all been confirmed by Asian trade partners.

Mr. Trump's tweets also said that the agreements include full market access for US products at zero tariffs. Asian commentators have already pushed back against this characterization. Former Indonesian minister Mari Pangestu, for example, has said that Indonesian negotiations are still under way with clarification on terms and conditions ahead. The Philippines quickly noted that not all US goods will receive zero tariffs.

DOUBTFUL CLAIMS