Can Sunak survive a Tory local election catastrophe?

This week sees one of the biggest tests of public opinion in England and Wales since the 2019 general election, and with the next election now due they will also tell us a good deal about the state of the parties.

- SEAN O'GRADY

In all, there will be elections for: 10 directly elected or metro mayors; 2,636 council seats across 107 local authorities (comprising 31 city boroughs, 18 unitary authorities and 58 district councils); 25 members of the Greater London Assembly; and 37 police and crime commissioners.

Each of the major parties will have their own private hopes and fears about the outcome, and will apply the usual spin to the results. However, there are some clear benchmarks for each party, and implications for the timing of the general election by Rishi Sunak, and for electoral strategies.

What would a good result for Rishi Sunak look like?

The results are bound to be pretty dismal, and some degree of panic and speculation about his leadership will ensue. The question is: how dismal, and how much panic? Many of these contests were last fought in 2021, when the vaccine rollout and post-lockdown relief gave Boris Johnson quite a boost, so the Conservative performance is almost certain to be down on that. The uncertain variable is what constitutes losses that are “too high” to continue without a change of leader, or what results are bad enough to trigger a vote of no confidence.