New farmers' party poised to throw Dutch green reforms into disarray

A new party led by farmers fighting cuts to nitrogen emissions is likely to be the big winner in Dutch regional elections that could severely weaken the government and, analysts suggest, heralding a Europe-wide resistance to a green transition.

- Jon Henley 

The BoerBurgerBeweging (FarmerCitizen Movement, or BBB) was launched in 2019 and has one MP, but its platform of "people against the elites" has struck a chord with disaffected voters, and polls suggest it could finish as the second-largest or even the largest party in today's vote.

The elections matter not only because under the Dutch system they determine who sits in the senate - without whose backing bills cannot become law-but because it is provincial governments that put national government goals into action.

In late May, when the provincial councils being voted for today elect the 75 members of the upper house, it looks likely that the government will fall far short of a majority, forcing it to seek support from the left or far right. Both options may prove difficult, if not impossible.

The BBB's popularity has surged amid government plans to buy farmers out and reduce livestock numbers by up to a third to help halve illegal nitrogen emission levels by 2030. It could become the largest party in five rural provinces, polls suggest.

The movement has also won support from some urban voters over the government's decision, in the face of a severe housing crisis, to comply with court rulings and suspend all large construction projects because they also emit nitrogen.