Heat of 40C is ‘10 times likelier’ as climate fails

Climate breakdown made th is month’s record UK heatwave 10 times more likely, researchers have found. Analy sis by World Weather Attribution reveals that temperatures in Britain during the heatwave, when they hit 40.3C , were higher than those simulated by climate models .

- Helena Horton

The researchers say extreme temperatures in western Europe are rising faster than expected.

To find out whether the heatwave was made more likely by climate change, scientists analysed weather data and computer simulations to compare the climate as it is today with the climate of the past, following peer-reviewed methods. They then analysed the maximum temperatures over two days of the heatwave, when Britain was most severely hit by the warm weather.

Extreme heat in western Europe has increased more than models have predicted. While models estimate greenhouse gas emissions increased temperatures in this heatwave by 2C , historical weather records suggest the heatwave would have been 4C cooler in a world that had not been warmed by human activities. Experts fear this means the impacts of global heating will be more drastic than previously thought.