Critical moment Raisi's death puts election process into the spotlight

The sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi means the Iranian regime unexpectedly finds itself faced with having to hold elections to appoint a successor.

- Patrick Wintour

The choice for Tehran is whether to allow the vote to be semi-democratic and contested, or risk nothing by ensuring no candidate with any organisation or following stands against the hardliner likely to be chosen as the regime's preferred candidate.

It is not likely to be a long discussion. Recent experience suggests the regime will opt for the safety of an election in which its chosen candidate has no serious rival, even if this leads to a lower turnout and a disillusioned electorate. With so much external and internal pressure on the regime, central to which is the inevitable and looming need to replace the 85-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the regime is not likely to leave much to chance. This is a critical moment,Khamenei and his allies will believe, for continuity and security.

Such a decision comes with risks. Iran has a long history of filtering out potential leaders from elections. All candidates have to be deemed qualified by an elite body known as the Guardian Council, and are interviewed to ensure their worthiness for high office.

In most cases, shunned candidates shrug their shoulders and walk away. Many do not even put their names forward, knowing they will be rejected.