Most recent estimates of national income present a mixed picture of our post-pandemic recovery.
Economic growth in 2022-23 is expected at 7% with gross value added seen rising 6.6%. However, a sectoral break-up of the data suggests unevenness. Manufacturing is expected to increase by only 0.6%. What should also worry us is that this sector has seen a contraction for the second consecutive quarter. Data also suggests weakening in key drivers of demand, such as private consumption and exports.
Therefore, any exuberance based on India's aggregate GDP data may be misplaced. This is also because our GDP data has shown significant fluctuations in provisional estimates compared to final estimates. Other than the uneven nature of growth, an uncertain external environment having spelt a decline in export growth over the last three months, sustained inflationary pressures and the vulnerability of agriculture to weather shocks are serious concerns as well.
What also signals a need for caution is Indian data on income from multiple sources. These numbers do not offer the optimism seen in national accounts and this is a particularly important problem right now, given the continued weakness in consumption and investment.
هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة March 24, 2023 من Mint Mumbai.
ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 8500 مجلة وصحيفة.
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هذه القصة مأخوذة من طبعة March 24, 2023 من Mint Mumbai.
ابدأ النسخة التجريبية المجانية من Magzter GOLD لمدة 7 أيام للوصول إلى آلاف القصص المتميزة المنسقة وأكثر من 8500 مجلة وصحيفة.
بالفعل مشترك? تسجيل الدخول
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