CIL set to shine in second half

Coal India Ltd’s (CIL) shares are 7% below their 52-week high of ₹359 apiece seen in mid-November. Still, there is optimism on earnings outlook owing to volume growth and better e-auction realizations.

- Dipti Sharma

The coal producer has a production and sales offtake target of 780 million tonnes (mt) each for FY24. This means CIL would have to clock 10% and 16% growth, respectively, in the remaining months to meet its production and offtake targets. The company expects offtake to pick up in the second half of FY24, partly aided by seasonality (lack of monsoon). In a recent investor call, the company’s management said it expects demand for coal to be strong in the coming years. CIL’s production target for FY25 is 850 mt.

Apart from volumes, the trend in e-auction price realisations is a crucial variable. The company sells coal through two main routes–fuel supply agreement (FSA) and e-auction. The realisation of e-auction coal is typically higher than that of FSA, which is heavily discounted to keep electricity prices low, said Amit Dixit, an analyst at ICICI Securities.