Analysts see $5k gold, explain current calm

Gold has been treading water in recent weeks, holding near the $4,000-an-ounce mark but showing little conviction either way.

- Issac John

A model displays jewellery at the recent Watch and Jewellery Middle East Show in Sharjah. Despite the metal's inability to sustain gains above the symbolic $4,000 level, the underlying tone in the gold market remains optimistic.

(SHIHAB/KHALEEJ TIMES)

However, precious metals analysts say beneath this surface calm, the market is simply gathering strength before its next big move one that could carry prices towards an unprecedented $5,000 per ounce by 2026.

Despite the metal's inability to sustain gains above the symbolic $4,000 level, the underlying tone in the gold market remains strikingly optimistic.

Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING, believes the current pause is less a sign of exhaustion and more of a healthy reset. In her latest monthly update, Manthey said she expects gold prices to average around $4,000 in the fourth quarter and rise to about $4,100 in the first quarter of 2026. Even after the recent pullback, she noted, gold remains up more than 50 per cent year-to-date. "Key supports, including central bank and haven demand, remain in place," she said, adding that the correction should attract renewed buying from both retail and institutional investors.

Her confidence stems from the same structural forces that have defined this rally: steady central-bank purchases, solid physical demand, and the expectation that lower interest rates will breathe fresh life into investment flows.