Revamping Asean's Myanmar strategy

REGIONAL POLITICS

- POU SOTHIRAK PEYSON HUNT

Myanmar's civil war, now in its fourth year, has become a test not just of national resilience but of Asean's capacity to respond to crises within its own ranks.

In 2021, the military overthrew the democratically elected government and created the State Administration Council (SAC), with its military being referred to as the Tatmadaw.

Opposition to the junta coalesced around the National Unity Government (NUG), with support from ethnic and religious militias, leading to a conflict that has ebbed and surged for over four years.

In March of this year, a devastating earthquake struck the nation and created a humanitarian crisis that both sides recognised as necessitating a pause in the conflict. This ceasefire came after many attempts by the international community to halt the violence, including by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean).

Asean was quick to react to the unfolding crisis in 2021 and issued its Five-Point Consensus (FPC), a plan to facilitate a ceasefire and dialogue with the hope of returning to normalcy. Unfortunately, the plan has fallen short of its goals and has been largely seen as symbolic. This has led to a crisis of confidence in Asean's ability to broker peace within its region.

While the current ceasefire in Myanmar may owe more to timing and circumstance than diplomatic coordination, it presents an opportunity for Asean to recalibrate its approach by reviving the FPC through actionable tools, broader international engagement, and a clearer understanding of the internal divisions that continue to hinder a unified response.

5-POINT CONSENSUS