In this essay, the author feels that threat assessments are the foundation of a state's national security policy. To explain how threat assessments become self-fulfilling prophecies, he has organised the essay into five parts. In the first part, the author highlights the features of threat assessments and the challenges faced. He also explains why intention assessments of threats are more important than assessments of their capabilities and stresses that intention assessments are primarily based on perceptions. He then describes the origins of misperception and how it may contribute to decision-makers' cognitive bias, which influences their subsequent actions. He proceeds to outline the possible factors on how intentions can be misperceived as hostile even though the reality may suggest otherwise. He then suggests how misperceptions can lead to self-fulfilling prophecies and broadly describes how states may act when they perceive threats. Finally, the author concludes with the measures to ensure that threat assessments do not become self-fulfilling prophecies.

In this essay, the author aims to discuss how China will embrace AI and Robotics to enhance its national security and how the security landscape will be affected by this pursuit. The author first identifies China’s national interests and examines how it will use AI and Robotics technologies to enhance its national security. Secondly, the author will dive deeper into the military aspect by identifying the AI and Robotics technologies that China’s military will likely adopt for their future warfare. Lastly, the author then analyses how China’s adoption of military-use AI and Robotics implicates the region's security landscape.

In this essay, the author examines the view that traditional Non-Offensive Defence (NOD) is not an effective military strategy in current times. He supports his arguments by analysing the origins of this military strategy and its fundamental principles. He then follows up with a discussion on the limitations of NOD, and the ‘game changers’ in modern day security realities. The author then concludes with a case study of Taiwan and how NOD can possibly remain effective in today’s world.

This essay critically examines the multifaceted challenges confronting regional security and co-operation within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). As the geopolitical landscape evolves, ASEAN faces a myriad of issues that impede the realisation of its vision for a stable and collaborative regional environment. This study delves into the diverse factors contributing to these challenges, ranging from historical disputes and territorial conflicts to economic disparities and differing political ideologies.


There are many qualities that a Commanding Officer (CO) must possess in order for them to lead their unit well. In this essay, the author shares the seven key factors that he feels an aspiring CO needs to consider when drawing out their own action plan as they take on the role of a CO, in order for them to have a more meaningful CO tour in their career.

We are pleased to continue with our next compilation of essays from the students of the Command and Staff Course (CSC) of the Goh Keng Swee Command and Staff College (GKS CSC). 

This essay undertakes a meticulous examination of the military leadership exhibited by General Arthur Percival during the Malayan Campaign and General Douglas MacArthur's command in the Philippines Campaign. By employing a comparative approach, the author aims to illuminate the distinct strategies, decision-making processes and overall performance of these two prominent military figures during a critical period of World War II in the Pacific theatre.

In this essay, the author explores the dynamic relationship between the traditional military concepts of ‘Decisive Battle’ and ‘Operational Art’. While ‘Decisive Battle’ traditionally embodies the idea of a single, pivotal confrontation that determines the outcome of a conflict, ‘Operational Art’ emphasises a more comprehensive, multifaceted approach to warfare, often involving a sequence of strategic actions. The author also explores the importance of ‘Operational Art’ and highlights how the use of it helps to bring about a swift and decisive victory in war.

In this essay, the author first describes the concept of national security and how it is typically achieved before attempting to shed light on the concept of Transparency. Next, viewing Transparency as an instrument, he identifies the mechanisms underpinning its effects and discusses its value and viability in facilitating national security—How does Transparency help achieve national security? When should it be used and what are the associated risks and limitations? Lastly, the author discusses how Transparency, as a condition of future global politics, will also shape future pursuits of national security and the associated challenges. 

In this essay, the author discusses the ideas of three military strategists in their analysis of Clausewitz’s Centre of Gravity (COG) concept—the Clausewitzian Traditionalists, the Rejectionists and the Accommodators. Specifically, the author examines the ideas of the Rejectionists as they rejected both the Clausewitzian and modern definitions. The author highlights that the COG concept is not an abstract concept for military planners. He feels that it is the current and future Operating Environments (OE) that make the COG concept such a challenge for modern military planners. His essay is divided into four parts—first, what are the different COG concepts, second, why the COG concept is not an abstract concept, third, the challenges of the current and future OEs and, fourth what are the appropriate levels of military planners for the utilisation of the COG concept.

In this essay, the author states that despite the increasing focus on irregular conflicts, today’s threat environment is really a hybrid of conventional and irregular warfare. In his opinion, small states need to retain the ability to deter and prevail in conventional conflict as their geostrategic realities provide them with little margin for error. Against the use of irregular warfare, they need to look beyond airpower’s traditional role as a primarily offensive tool to unlock other applications that can more aptly contribute to the objective of achieving legitimacy and influence over the relevant population. The author feels that one must understand that airpower has its limitations and cannot be the sole solution to all problems. Today’s conflicts are increasingly protracted and won by those who can control the narrative. The author concludes that airpower will be unsustainable and counter-productive for small states in today’s environment, if it is not complemented by other levers such as strategic communication.

POINTER Vol 49, No. 1 is a compilation of essays from SAF officers who attended overseas defence colleges.

According to the author, the security dilemma is an unfortunate reality, perhaps an enduring feature of the self-help international system. He explains that threat assessments exist in part because of the security dilemma, and these assessments can become self-fulfilling prophecies. This happens because of the limitations in the assessment of capability and political intent of a state, given the lack of information or transparency, the need to make judgments to fill in the informational gaps, biases on the part of the analysts, and misperceptions of words or actions. The impact of these factors on threat assessments influence states to move towards conflict, either due to factors of internal power politics or, they are caught in a spiral of misperceptions with the other party towards seemingly endless counterbalancing. However, the author highlights that it is not in the interest of states or international relations to see these prophecies become inevitable. Rather, all states should work together towards a peaceful and prosperous global world order, despite the apparent anarchy. He also suggests the improvement of intelligence analysis and reducing misperceptions as ways to break the self-fulfilling cycles. 

The essay views radical Islamic terrorist organisations as anti-fragile systems to understand better the resilience of these organisations and the requirements of a successful counter-terrorism containment strategy. Despite the 20-year Global War on Terrorism, the scourge of terrorism has not been eradicated but has seen a resurgence in recent years globally and in Southeast Asia. Currently, Radical Islamic terrorists form the bulk of terrorist attacks in terms of numbers and geospatial coverage. Compared to other forms of terrorism, Radical Islamic terrorist organisations’ unique characteristic is their singular goal of imposing their radical version of Islamic supremacy. 
Radical Islamic terrorist organisations are highly resilient and exhibit ‘antifragility’ properties—the ability for systems to benefit when stressed. Systems thinking methodology was applied to analyse the interdependencies of the underlying factors of the political influence of terrorist organisations. The source of their antifragility was identified to be a group of factors which are interlinked in four self-reinforcing loops. By shattering the four loops, the terrorist organisations will lose their political influence, leading to their eventual demise. 
Radical Islamic terrorist organisations are media savvy and exploit the media and social influence to amplify the factors contributing to their antifragility. Strategies to contain terrorist organisations must account for the media dimension by reducing the terrorists’ ability to exploit the media and increasing the general population’s social resilience to terrorists’ propaganda. Tech companies and governments have attempted to create counter-narratives to reduce the effectiveness of terrorists’ propaganda in the media. For social resilience, a key thrust of Singapore’s counter-terrorism approach is the SGSecure programme which aims to build up vigilance, unity and resilience in Singapore society.

In this essay, the author highlights that the development and deployment of Autonomous Weapon Systems (AWS) in modern warfare raises pressing ethical questions. He examines the ethical problems posed by the use of AWS and critically assesses the arguments presented by various writers. The author evaluates the ethical frameworks presented in the readings and explores the implications of deploying AWS in the context of the laws of armed conflict and just war theory. He compares and contrasts various positions on the topic, including the arguments for and against the deployment of AWS, the possibility of accountability and responsibility for AWS, and the ethical implications of using AWS for targeted killings. The author argues that ultimately, while there may be some advantages to using AWS in warfare, the ethical concerns raised by their deployment are significant and must be addressed. He concludes by advocating for a cautious and principled approach to the development and deployment of AWS, one that prioritises ethical considerations and human well-being.


In this essay, the author argues that the Centre of Gravity (COG)  concept is not too abstract a concept to be of use to military planners. He begins by defining the physical and moral centres of gravity and then proceeds to examine possible confusions in defining and applying COG which may arise from factors such as the operating environment, inherent unpredictability in war and so on. However, the author goes on to explain how the concept is nevertheless useful in aiding understanding. Finally, the author looks at modernised approaches to defining the COG and uses the case study of Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Marawi to examine this thinking in the context of counter insurgency operations.


In this essay, the author theorises that a state’s growth in economic might is o..en matched by an increasingly outward
-facing strategic vision and a corresponding build-up of military power projec..on capabili..es. He cited the example of the
United States, a growing economic power by the late 19th century, who managed to overcome its isola..onist foreign policy and
rise to its global role. The author then explores the rela..onship between wealth and power, highligh..ng that as na..ons become
increasingly wealthy, they extend themselves globally as well as equip themselves with military tools to influence areas far
beyond their borders. The author proceeds with a defini..on of military power projec..on. He then analyses the examples of
China, India and Japan and shows how the acquisi..on of such capabili..es by each country is inextricably linked to their rising
economic strength and increasingly global strategic vision.

Both World War Two (WWII) and World War One (WWI) mark some of humanity’s darkest moments in the 20th century—cities razed to the ground, acts of unspeakable cruelty and deaths numbering in the untold millions. In this essay, the author argues that, despite the undeniably bloody legacy left by both wars, WWII still stands as the more destructive and intense of the two battles, henceforth referred to as it being closer to ‘Total War’. The author highlight factors like an immeasurable body count, greater aggression across all parties concerned, a more profound impact on industries, the participation of more civilians and the involvement of countries and regions that were previously not involved in WWI, which underscores the devastation left by WWII. The unprecedented impact of WWII, the author feels can, even now, be felt in every continent of the world and, therefore exemplifies the character of ‘Total War’ rather than WWI.

In this essay, the author examines the challenges faced by states seeking to deter threats without the
advantage of possessing nuclear weapons. He first examines the principles behind deterrence such as the two main
strategies of denial and punishment. The factors needed for successful deterrence—capability, credibility and
communication—are also examined. The author then goes on to highlight the differences between conventional and
nuclear deterrence. Singapore is cited as a case study to highlight how elements of diplomacy, information and
economics along with military deterrence can shape a successful strategy. The author concludes by stating that
though a strong military is still the most practical means for non-nuclear states to protect themselves, it must be
utilised along with these other factors due to the limitations of conventional deterrence.

In this essay, the author examines the continuities and developments in naval warfare in three sections. First, he examines the concept of naval warfare. Second, he studies the role of naval thought and technology in the revolution and evolution of naval warfare. In the third and final section, the author analyses the geo-strategic, economic, legal and social factors that drive developments in naval warfare. The author concludes by stating that for most countries particularly maritime nations, navies will continue to serve as critical instruments of power and as an extension of defence and security policies to safeguard their national interest and survival through the peace-war continuum.


In this essay, the author first defines deterrence and explains its concept and its key elements. He then explores the application of conventional deterrence strategies, whether it is through denial, or through punishment, and touch on its limitations. He proceeds to examine the existential nature of nuclear deterrence and the role it plays in shaping deterrence between states. Specifically, the author illustrates why nuclear-equipped states do not necessarily enjoy a deterrence advantage in today’s security environment and discusses the deterrence strategies that non-nuclear states can employ. The author argues that these deterrence strategies remain viable, albeit complemented by other instruments of the state such as defence, diplomatic and economic interdependence. In the essay, the author also focuses on traditional state actors that apply rationality to its risks-benefit analysis in its decision-making processes. The author does not cover deterrence towards non-state actors, whose conduct of violence through terrorism for the objective of fear mongering and attention-seeking, thrives under the cloak of non-statelessness and diverges from traditional concepts of deterrence, which will require a separate study.


States are increasingly vulnerable in the modern-day 21st century geopolitical environment, arising from globalization, connectivity and disruptions from the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR). Economic interdependency and the global free flow of ideas and information have increased the vulnerability of states to economic and political-social disruptions across multiple fronts of inter-state competition and conflicts short of war. In this complex, dynamic and uncertain geopolitical environment of the 21st century, sovereign states engage in geopolitical competition below the threshold level of war within a Grey Zone to preserve their sovereignty and advance their national interests. This is especially so for non-Great Power states—middle powers and small states—which have inherent limitations to its power and influence and do not have the capacities like great powers to coerce and compel others to do their will. The non-Great Power state must employ all available instruments of its national power coherently through grand strategy-making in order to wield soft power and compete effectively in the Grey Zone against coercion to preserve their sovereignty and advance their national interests.

In this essay, the author cites Mary Kaldor1, who argues that armed conﬂicts in the post-Cold War era is fundamentally diﬀerent from traditional Clausewitzian interstate conflicts. Unlike old wars, which were fought between state-controlled militaries for geopolitical and ideological reasons, 'new wars' are predominantly financed by 'predatory private means' and fought in the name of identity. Identity politics has played an important role in legitimising the use of violence against other groups, for geopolitical and ideological pursuits, in both classical and contemporary armed conflicts and it is difficult to split the concept of identity politics from geopolitics due to the nature of warfare as a social activity. The author concludes by explaining that identity politics is being used as a tool to incite violence against out-groups. Identity also shares a strong emotional linkage with concept of a ‘homeland’, and has been politicised by interest groups to further their geopolitical agendas. 

In this essay, the author highlights that while civilian leadership may help to drive top-down military innovation in peacetime, a civil-military relationship characterised by direct civilian control breeds a culture of deference and thus negatively affects a military's spontaneity in adapting to current realities. By examining the changes in civil-military relations in Israel from 1985 to 2006 and its corresponding effects on the Israel Defense Force's adaptation in dealing with Hezbollah, the author aims to illustrate that heightened civilian constraints on the military impinge on the military's ability to strategically and operationally adapt to the character of the Second Lebanon War. The author concludes that civilian and military leaders should seek a balanced and supportive civil-military relationship and foster a conducive culture of initiative and independent thinking to enable better integration of top-down innovation and bottom-up adaptation.

In this essay, the author discusses the various dimensions of strategy. He examines Clausewitz’s five elements of strategy in his seminal work On War. He also explores Colin Gray’s 17 Dimensions and Michael Howard’s Four
Dimensions of Strategy. The author then studies the question that some dimensions may be more fundamental
than others in securing victory. He suggests that all the above dimensions were interactively in play and that no one
or two dimensions can guarantee success although culture, identified as a dimension, can manifest itself in all
dimensions. Finally, the author concludes that we will have to prepare for conflicts with these dimensions of
strategy to improve our future strategic performance.

The author highlights that many contemporary military strategists and practioners value the philosophies
contained in Carl Von Clausewitz’s classic On War and its relevance to present day conflict. On the other hand, there
are also speculation and debates over Clausewitz’s relevance to contemporary conflict as well. In this essay, the author compares, contrasts and critically assesses the compe..ng views of Clausewitz’s applicability to modern warfare and analyses whether there is value for military leaders in studying his theories. In particular, he explores two authors’ views, Strachan’s The Direction of War and Kalder’s Inconclusive Wars, which offer conflicting arguments on Clausewitz’s relevance in these global times. He scrutinises these competing arguments and by supplemen..ng them with additional examples, affirms that Clausewitz’s theory is applicable and appropriate to contemporary military operations.

Our first issue for 2021—Vol 47, No. 1 is a  compilation of essays from students of our local Command and Staff Course (CSC) of the Goh Keng Swee Command and Staff College (GKS CSC).

In this essay, the author argues that currently, while there are limitations in Artificial Intelligence (AI) decision-making, it is too late to prohibit the use of autonomous technologies for future warfare. This is due to the potential of Autonomous Weapons Systems (AWS) as the next Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) for both State and Non-State actors. However, the author feels that it is crucial to control the use of AWS. He argues this in his essay which is divided into three parts—firstly, he will define both AI and AWS, and suggests why current technical challenges of AI decision-making will not be a long-term limiting factor for its use by the military. Second, he will examine the applications and implications of AWS in future warfare. Thirdly, he will explain why the ‘game-changing' impacts of AWS to warfare will make it unlikely for international bans on AWS to succeed. Finally, he will propose some mitigating measures to control the use of AWS.

In this essay, the author argues for the proliferation of Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV) in projecting air power in 2035, and highlights the concerns involved. The author first describes the likely security landscape in the years ahead. Next, he goes on to highlight the trends of UCAVs and the reasons why they will become even more relevant in the future. The author also examines the controversies involved in conducting UCAV operations, which may impede the adoption of UCAV systems. Finally, the author analyses the implications of such trends on Singapore, in particular.

April 2024

March 2024

February 2024

January 2024

Vol. 49 No.2

December 2023

October 2023

September 2023

August 2023

July 2023

Vol. 49 No.1

May 2023

April 2023

March 2023

February 2023

POINTER is the official journal of the Singapore Armed Forces. It is a non-profit, quarterly publication that is circulated to more than 10,000 MINDEF/SAF officers and various foreign military and defence institutions. POINTER aims to engage, educate and promote professional reading among SAF officers, and encourage them to think about, debate and discuss professional military issues. 

POINTER’s staple of publications includes journals, monographs and supplements. We leverage on the power of vast domestic and international network of ideas spanning the military-academic-scientific-industrial nexus for quality articles. SAF officers and both local and international defence experts and eminent thinkers of diverse fields are welcome to contribute articles for POINTER publication.

Defence Psychology: Empowering People, Enhancing Performance

DEFENDING OUR CYBERSPACE

Republic of Singapore Navy 50th Anniversary

SAF Medical Corps 50th Anniversary

Beyond the Horizon: Forging the Future RSAF

RSAF Through 50 Years of Nation-Building

One Of A Kind (2nd Edition)

The RSAF Journey - Voices from the Past, Present and Future

Fires: Tempering Of Steel

Leading in the Third Generation SAF: A Reader for Leadership Development

The Information Fusion Centre:  Challenges and Perspectives

Called to Lead: A Reader For Aspiring SAF Leaders

The SAF Professional Reading Programme (4th Edition)

On Staff Work

On Command

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{{magzter}} is the World's largest and fastest growing self-service, cross-platform digital newsstand with over 87 million users since its inception in 2011 and thousands of magazines and newspapers across 40+ categories and 60+ languages. Headquartered in New York, Magzter has its local presence in Amsterdam, London, Mexico City, Chennai, Mumbai, New Delhi, Bengaluru, Singapore, and will soon be expanding to other countries. Founded by global entrepreneurs, Girish Ramdas and Vijay Radhakrishnan in June 2011, Magzter enables magazine and newspaper publishers around the world to create and deliver digital editions of their titles to global consumers.

POINTER Magazine - October 2021

POINTER Magazine - October 2021

In this issue

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