Expectations & Changes - 2019

A New Year is always filled with expectations; but change isn't always easy and sometimes it can be hard to get motivated to embrace something new and
different. Last year the iron and steel industry went through a phase of uneasy
changes both globally & locally from rising tensions of trade war, price rises,
M & A's, and temporary truce of trade war. 2019 should pave way for change in technology, regulations, improving skill gaps for Indian steel industry.

Another calendar year draws to a close. The fortunes of the Indian steel
industry wavered. The Chinese export rebate cancellation was a major
influencer. The second Covid surge and ensuing oxygen crisis stifled crude
steel production for a month. Even as output bounced back, renewed
post-lockdown industrial activity led to a sudden mismatch in power
demand and generation, leading to domestic power shortfall, which
was subsequently alleviated by increased coal production by Coal India.
Indian mills exhausted and exceeded their Europe exports quotas in the
first five month of the year to stay afloat during the Covid surge, while the
European Commission extended safeguard measures for another three
years. Auto production was hit by the semi-conductor shortage while
mills intermittently raised prices, in tandem with their export prospects.
China’s production curbs, coal shortage and the global energy crisis and
surging prices thereof made headlines.
CY’22 is beginning in the throes of Omicron. But this too shall pass.
Domestic demand in flats is expected to be better as the chip shortage
wanes while longs may also see higher demand on the back of the
government’s infra push. However, exports need to sustain since
domestic demand may not absorb the incremental crude steel production
in CY’22, which may touch 124-125 million tonnes.
Steel360 wishes its readers a Happy New Year!

India's leading steel mills have announced a downward price correction.
What led to the revision?
Global steel prices have been correcting for around a month now, dragged
down by lower thermal and coking coal and met coke prices, exerting
pressure on domestic mills. Even though Chinese steel futures have
remained stable since early-November, prices are not likely to revise
upwards soon because of China’s production cuts and an overall lack of
demand as it, along with western countries, enter deep winter, a lean
construction period. Moreover, China is not encouraging too much of
carbon-spewing industrial activity ahead of the Winter Games.
Raw material prices have eased for Indian mills over November, putting
less pressure on production costs. The Australian premium low vol HCC
coking coal lost around $90/t over last fortnight while NMDC’s iron
ore lumps prices dropped to eight-month lows while global spot prices
of the benchmark Fe62% fines declined to $98/t levels from previous
stratospheric highs of $230/t. Import prospects are up with the drop in
global prices since landed costs are lower than domestic.
Our Cover Story focuses on the Indian Association’s current views and
outlook. Read the full interview with Alok Sahay, Secretary General and
Executive Head of ISA, inside.

Indian primary steel mills have raised prices for Nov’21. Flat steel rates
are up by INR 2,000-2,500/tonne. The reason is surging prices of input
materials like coking coal, met coke and ferro alloys. Indeed, premium
HCC Australian coking coal prices are up 257% in Oct’21 y-o-y while the
HCC 64 mid-vol is up 214% in this period. Prices of both silico manganese
(60-14) and ferro manganese (FC70%) are currently up around 30% since
the third week of September. October too had seen a price hike -- by INR
1,500/t in flats and around INR 3,500/t in longs.
But will the end-user segment be able to absorb the latest hike --
especially since the domestic and export markets both look dull at
present? Trade level participants say demand is low. Construction players
say they are moving to the sidelines on rising steel prices.
In exports, China’s aggressively low rates are luring Vietnamese buyers
while CIS and Russian mills are also actively selling to South East Asia.
Europe may not open up very strongly from the new calendar because of
the lean winter demand season. Moreover, too many exporting countries
are eying the continent and thus prices may come under pressure.
Our cover story takes a look at the short and medium terms

China’s coal crisis is deepening and having a far-reaching impact. It has
sent global coal prices spiraling, putting downstream consumers globally
on the backfoot.
The Indian power sector is facing critical coal inventory levels, with those
boilers dependent solely on imported coal reducing their operations
drastically, putting pressure on plants relying on domestic coal.
October may be a critical period for Indian steel mills because coal has
ballooned into a major issue, although they operated at optimal levels
in September. Some captive plants may have to stop production. The
government may also have to intervene, as the crisis deepens, to ask
power-intensive units like electric arc furnaces and induction furnaces to
curtail production -- so that electricity can be diverted to the household
sector keeping in mind the festive season ahead.
This is tricky at a time the industry is entering the peak demand season
that starts from October. The monsoon recedes and construction
activities resume full steam, which would give a fillip to long steel
consumption. The festive season generally ensures high consumer
durables demand, which would, in turn, have a positive impact on flat
steel.
With cost of production having escalated, thanks especially to runaway
coal inflation, mills have raised finished steel prices.
Steel360 wishes its readers a Happy Durga Puja and Dusshera.

Most of the major mills announced their first quarter (Q1FY'22)
performance some time back. Steel360, while checking out their
performance in terms of crude steel output, domestic and export sales,
and EBIDTA, realised that almost all the biggies being reviewed saw their
Q1 production dip q-o-q. Also, domestic sales took a hit because of the
second wave of the pandemic that swept right through the first quarter
(Q1). Consequently, their export performance was good although poorer
compared to the same period last fiscal.
However, coming back to the present, there is not much scope of steel
prices increasing further in the short term since exports are a bother at
present. Europe quotas have been exhausted, and exports prospects to
Vietnam and South East Asia are bleak at present because of the surge
in Covid’s second wave. In a ripple effect, domestic steel prices will likely
correct. On the domestic front, traders feel prices will correct and that
mills may reduce their list prices or give trade-level discounts.

With the second wave of the pandemic receding somewhat, economic 
activities have resumed considerably, which offers scope for August to 
be a better month in terms of production, demand and pricing. Output is 
likely to improve, especially from the secondary sector, which had been 
worse off over the last couple of months. There has been correction in 
raw material prices, which will encourage mills to resume production. 
Demand too is likely to be better in August, with lockdowns easing in 
most states. Pent-up demand may get released, keeping in mind that the 
monsoon will start receding end-September.
Semis and finished steel prices have shown an uptick. Prices will not 
perhaps decrease in the current month. In fact, long products prices 
have seen a slight uptrend with mills having liquidated inventory through 
exports. Flat product prices may not have the facility to increase with 
end-user segments like automobiles and consumer goods still recouping 
from lockdown woes, However, the trade-level rebates have been 
withdrawn. 
Our cover story tracks India’s iron ore production and upcoming auctions 
scenario.
Enjoy the read!

The second wave of the pandemic is easing, but the medical fraternity is already 
raising a red flag over the impending third wave.
And the second wave, before receding, has dealt a body blow to domestic steel 
consumption. While the smaller mills have reduced capacity utilization drastically, 
some are even mulling temporary shut-downs till the market looks up again.
There is room for price corrections, especially in long products, with the monsoon 
well upon us and demand low.
Exports too are undergoing a temporary lull. Importantly, Indian mills have come 
under the Eurofer scanner which has sought an anti-dumping duty (AD) probe into 
Indian HRC imports into Europe. This development can keep exports to Europe 
low for the rest of the calendar. The HRC quota of around 1.66 lakh tonnes for 
Apr-Jun’21 was exhausted much before the quarter closed. As of 1 Jul’21, India’s 
request to export HRCs to the EU amounted to 333,130 t, while the country’s 
tariff-free individual quota for 1 Jul-1 Sept’21 is only 169,717 t, as per EU customs 
data. Any volume in excess of this attracts a 25% duty on the buyer’s account. 
India’s exports of HRCs to Europe in Jan-Apr’21 were up 190% compared to the same period in CY’20. The new quotas from 1 Jul’21 are yet to be released.
Enjoy the read!

Long products’ prices on back-foot
Domestic steel demand is sluggish, encouraging mills to export. Construction 
activities in India are mostly stalled at present because of the lock-down across 
states. A size able portion of construction labour has also returned home. With the 
approaching monsoon, construction work level will remain low. Therefore, demand 
for longs will also stay subdued over Jun-Sept’21.
 With the government order lifting restrictions on rebar supplies by secondary 
mills for government projects, the price dynamics have altered slightly. As per the 
notification, the induction mills can supply to projects, provided they conform to 
mandatory BIS standards as per successive Steel Quality Control Orders. But, in a 
spin-off, larger mills have not been able to increase their prices too much in order 
to stay in competition with the IFs.
 On the other hand, globally, demand for flats is high with lock-downs having 
eased across Europe. The emphasis is on construction to kick-start economies. 
Demand in the West for automobiles is high with an accent on personal vehicles in 
countries that once encouraged public transport. Both factors are fueling import 
demand for HRCs and CRCs.
 There is a gap of 15-20% between the domestic and overseas prices despite a 
sharp fall in Chinese export offers on the back of volatile futures. To reduce the gap 
with export prices, Indian mills are mulling further price hikes in HRCs and CRCs by 
around INR 2,000-3,000/tonne ($27-41/t). In May’21 alone, a few major steel mills 
lifted prices twice. 
 With further hikes expected in HRC prices, the spread between rebars may only 
widen further. Mills may not have too much of bandwidth to raise domestic longs 
prices with the monsoons round the corner even if lock-downs ease across states.

Raising the Bar for IFs
No word seems to encapsulate well enough the horror that is unfolding across 
India. New Covid infections are crossing 3.7 lakh and the country is gasping from 
the lack of ICU and ward beds, doctors and nurses, medicines and, of course, 
oxygen. The most important story apart from India’s gargantuan struggle with 
Covid is the diversion of oxygen by the integrated steel players towards hospitals, 
because steel is the highest guzzler of oxygen amongst all industries. While JSW 
Steel is taking a cut in production, SAIL has taken a temporary shutdown of its 
Bhilai Steel Plant. Individual mills may take a production hit, but overall output 
from the integrated players is not likely to be dented more than 5-7% on an 
annualised basis which can be made up as the year progresses. On the other hand, 
the induction furnaces (IFs) and scrap yards are looking at temporary shutdowns. 
However, overall, even if steel production is sacrificed, it is being done at the altar 
of saving lives.
 The government has lifted restrictions on rebar supplies by secondary 
producers. The stage is set for IFs to supply steel to government infra projects. 
Our cover story on pg. 26 explores quality issues and the secondary producers’ 
confidence in the same.
 World View on pg. 15 takes an indepth look at wordsteel’s April Short Range 
Outlook which indicates steel demand will grow 5.8% in 2021 but for most 
developed economies a return to pre-pandemic levels (of steel demand) will take a 
few years.
 ExperTalk, on pg. 05 shows how the MMDR Act changes will make finished steel 
dearer. 
Plus, we focus on a lot more..

Auctions: Pitfalls ahead?
We are at a strange cusp. The vaccines are being rolled out and there is a sense of optimism with most people having dropped their masks and social distancing efforts. And yet, cases are on an upswing, denoting that the second wave of the 
pandemic has gripped India. Inflationary pressures are being felt with costs of input materials rising. “Even so, another outbreak, more lockdowns and restraints, will get unbearable in spite of learning from the initial experience of living with the virus," a recent RBI article said.
 In steel, the government deems auctions as the only transparent method of resource allocation. However, not a single greenfield mine, among those auctioned, has started operations. While mining costs have shot up to unsustainable levels, key mineral resources have come to be concentrated in a few hands. Therefore, the outcomes have often been unfair and inequitable – quite the opposite of what the policy sought to achieve! Our Cover Story on pg. 20 explores the auctions’ pros and cons one year down the line.
 Tata Steel’s Scrap Recycling Business, in a first, is branding the material. Impact studies the brand width on pg. 10
 The much-awaited Vehicle Scrappage Policy was announced recently. Industry, on pg. 14, explores how it will drive future auto sales and pollution control aspects.
 Intervista, on pg. 30, focuses on Triveni Turbines’ future plans through a tete-atete with Executive Director & CEO ArunMote.
 In ExperTalk on pg. 36, Paul Bartholomew, head of S&P Global Platts’ Metals Analytics division, analyses if there is a natural inflection point after months of steel price increases or are markets taking a breather before heading north again? Plus, we focus on a lot more.
Enjoy the read!

A key development in February was the rising fuel prices, touching a peak of 
INR 100 in some states. The government blamed the Covid-induced output cuts 
by global oil-producing countries for the high prices at retail ends in India. Fuel 
prices have a cascading effect, leading to cost escalation in wholesale and retail 
markets, impacting the common man’s purchasing power of essential commodities. 
With demand for fuel increasing to pre-Covid levels oil supply cuts are posing a 
challenge.
It is widely acknowledged that the government’s focus on housing and 
construction is likely to trigger further expansion of induction furnace steelmaking in India. While steel quality concerns remain at the forefront, induction 
furnace steel-making is poised to gain wider acceptability on low capex and higher 
energy efficiency. In our cover story on pg. 26, Electrotherm, a market leader in 
induction furnace technology, shares key insights into the emerging trends in steel 
refining, automation and digitalisation that are re-shaping the industry.
Intervista turns the spotlight on APL Apollo, a market leader in steel structural 
tubes. Anubhav Gupta, Chief Strategy Officer, shares the company’s future plans 
on pg. 36.
RINL is at the crossroads. The 100% divestment proposal is sparking protests. 
Company Update, on pg. 10, takes a look at the scenario. We may need to keep watching this space. 
Plus, we focus on a lot more.
Enjoy the read.

Shot in the Arm for Economy
The International Monetary Fund recently revised upwards the growth forecast for
India’s economy to 11.5% in 2021, in its World Economic Outlook, making it the only
major economy expected to record double-digit growth amidst the pandemic followed
by China, which is likely to grow 8.1% in 2021. However, China grew 2.3% in 2020 –
the only major economy to record positive growth. The IMF revised higher the forecast
for India's growth in 2021 by 2.7 percentage points, "reflecting carryover from a
stronger-than-expected recovery in 2020 after lockdowns were eased".
The positivity stems from the vaccination drive that has rolled out globally. The
International Labour Organisation has projected that economies of most countries will
recover in H2 of 2021.
Steel prices have headed north though they are still lower than international rates. Our
Cover Story, on pg 25, takes a look at the reasons for the rally, whether there is room
for further increase, and impact on user-industries.
The Union Budget, tabled on February 1, carried the weight of expectations from India
Inc. Industry, on pg. 18, explores the key takeaways and also the demands charter from
the steel sector.
Plus, we focus on a lot more.
Enjoy the read!

Steel a Lot More to Come
Just as we were breathing easy that the worst was behind us, and bracing to usher in
the new year on a note of optimism, with prospects of the vaccine emerging and
hospitals affirming a drop in cases, a new strain of SARS-CoV2 has raised its ugly head,
putting the entire world in fear of a fresh Covid wave.
But, prior to this development, many foreign financial services companies, sounded
upbeat on India’s growth. Morgan Stanley, for instance, expected India’s GDP to grow
at 9.8% on-year in 2021, after contracting 5.7% on-year in 2020. As per Nomura, the
Indian economy is expected to grow at 9.9% in 2021, eclipsing China (2021 GDP
growth pegged at 9%) and Singapore (at 7.5%) during this period.
However, the growth outlooks have their challenges. Uncertainty stemming from faster
tightening of domestic financial conditions, higher-than-expected stressed asset
creation, and slower recapitalisation of PSU banks may weigh on the growth trend,
apart from risks from a slowing global growth, said Morgan Stanley.
Nomura warns against the structural balance sheet challenges, particularly elevated
NPAs in the financial sector, constrained fiscal space and a corporate sector focused
more on deleveraging than capex.
Steel360, in this special issue, takes a look at how 2021 could pan out for the steel
industry. The market is expected to be in recovery mode. Domestic demand is moving
northward, so are prices, impelled by rising iron ore prices, tightness in scrap supply
and increased infra spending. Finished steel demand may gain almost 20% to 100.4
MnT in 2021 compared to 2020’s 81.9 MnT. With crude steel production already
nearing pre-Covid levels. it is likely to cross 140 MnT by FY22. But ore supply issues
need to be ironed out.
Enjoy the read!

2020 Vision
2020! Phew, what a year in the history of civilisation. The jury is still out on whether it
is possibly the greatest baddie or our forefathers had seen even worse. But, the world,
on its part, has witnessed unprecedented times, when survival, in more ways than one,
has become the greatest challenge.
The year started on a catastrophic note with the Australian bush fires still raging and
killing or dislocating close to 300 crore animals. This was swiftly followed by the
deadly Covid-19 pandemic’s entry that has seen 61 million cases worldwide and 1.43
million deaths at the time of writing this edit. Economies collapsed and are still
struggling. Job losses became rampant. Daily wage earners starved. The colossal
reverse migration laid bare the plight of India’s have-nots. Natural calamities left a trail
of devastation. Work-from-home, sanitisers and masks became the new normal.
Lockdowns, virus, pandemic, vaccines became the watchwords.
The steel industry too was impacted badly with several user industries coming to a
halt. The secondary sector had to almost down shutters in the initial stages. Overall,
steel production reduced by a whopping 65% while mills survived on exports. With the
lifting of the lockdown, economic activity started resuming slowly with the second
quarter seeing unprecedented hike in raw material and product prices. The third
quarter saw a muted festive season with auto and white goods sales going northwards
but on a low base.
However, the scars of the ongoing pandemic will not heal swiftly what with both
production and consumption dented badly. It could take one full year for the industry
to recover to the levels seen in 2018-19.
This special issue of Steel360 takes a look back at the year that was.
Steel360 wishes its readers a Merry Christmas and a Happy and Healthy 2021.

India’s pandemic-ravaged ferrous metals recycling industry is trying its best to emerge fit after a therapeutic bout of government sops in the form of detention charges waiver at ports during the lockdown. The important factor till the end of the current fiscal would be the expected second wave of COVID-19. Some
countries in Europe have already announced one-month lockdowns. If more
follow suit to control the pandemic then demand and prices both can be
impacted. As it is, there is a scarcity in global scrap supplies due to lower
production, factors which are keeping prices firm. Our Cover Story, on pg.30,
unravels the scrap industry through the eyes of three industry veterans – Yogesh
Bedi, Chief, Steel Recycling Business, Tata Steel; Sanjay Mehta, Director, MTC
Business & President, MRAI; & Raj S. Vaidhyanathan, Group Director
(Commercial), Indicaa Group, Dubai.
Intervista, on pg.49, zeroes in on M.C. Thomas, Managing Director, Tata Steel Mining Limited (TSML), who dwells on the company’s growth plans along with the emerging ferro chrome scenario in India and globally. Our Product section, on pg.43, throws the spotlight on the around 22-MnT pipes & tubes industry which is betting big on city gas and water distribution projects and rural demand. Coal360, on pg.22, unravels how pent-up demand from steel mills has helped met
coke prices to regain lost ground, and on pg.24, traces the strides Coal India is
taking towards mechanised coal transportation.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!
Steel360 wishes its readers a Happy Diwali.

How Green is my Steel?
September-October generally signals the onset of India’s core festive season,
when sales in steel-consuming sectors like consumer durables and auto
traditionally spiral. Even while India’s GDP contracted by a record 23.9% in Q1
against 3.1% in January-March, 2020, present macro indicators like overall
exports and rail freight are likely to show month-on-month improvements in
September over August. Passenger and two-wheeler sales in September were up
20-22% over August but consumer durables recovery could be slow. The
downside is, economy watchers fear demand could fall back post-festive season.
A lot has been happening in iron ore. A key development is that Odisha, India’s
key state in terms of this precious mineral reserve, is grappling with a supply
crisis that threatens the survival of scores of secondary steel units, pellets and
sponge iron producers. Domestic prices too are consequently rallying. The Odisha
government has given a month’s relief till October 31 to ex-lessees of mines
auctioned in February to evacuate stocks and equipment. The mines ministry has
sought feedback on the “proposed reforms” to the MMDR Act, but what do the
iron ore-producing states feel? Globally, China’s construction boom is pushing up
prices to record highs. Spotlight tracks the developments across pgs 05, 23, 56
and 60.
A unique feature of the Indian steel industry is the huge scale of production
through induction furnaces. India is the first and perhaps only country using IFs
to make mild steel. Cover story, on pgs 34 and 40, explores green IF options and
possibilities of steel refinement through this route.
Full recovery in real estate is not yet round the corner as Industry finds out on pg
09.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!
Steel360 wishes its readers a very happy Durga Puja &
Dusshera.

Despite COVID-19 Nightmare,
India’s Steel Dream Intact
The RBI’s recently-released Annual Report for 2019-20 says high frequency
indicators that have arrived so far point to a retrenchment in activity
unprecedented in history. The upticks visible in May and June after the lockdown
was eased in parts of the country, appear to have lost strength in July and August,
mainly due to re-imposition or stricter imposition of lockdowns, suggesting that
contraction in economic activity will likely prolong into Q2. An assessment of
aggregate demand during the year so far suggests that the shock to consumption
is severe, and it will take time to regain the pre-COVID-19 momentum. Supply
chains and production structures are in disarray and commodity prices, especially
those of metals, are reflecting the supply shock.
However, despite these dour prognostications, our Cover Story, on pg. 34,
reinforces the belief that India’s steel dream is still intact. Peeyush Gupta, Vice
President, Steel (Marketing & Sales), Tata Steel, expects a recovery from April,
2021, although the pandemic has pushed back domestic demand by about a year.
Steel exports may see a drop in the coming months due to rising domestic
demand. Industry tracks the story on pg. 22
Intervista, on pg. 06, turns the spotlight on Vijay Sharma, Director, JSL, who is upbeat that demand for stainless steel will recover from Q3.
In Expertalk, on pg. 30, JSPL MD V.R. Sharma advises that India must be ready for
big-ticket reforms in the coming years.
In Guest Column, on pg. 57, Sanchit Datta, Senior Consulting Analyst, Metals &
Minerals Practice, Frost & Sullivan, reveals that despite aluminum's non-corrosive
nature, weight and elasticity, steel is still the primary metal used in the
automotive industry, due to its strength and cost competitiveness.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!

Supply Issues, More ‘Ore’ Less
Growth projections for the current fiscal by various global and domestic agencies
indicate a sharp contraction of the Indian economy, with predictions ranging from
-3.2% to -9.5% against the backdrop of the COVID-19 crisis. Recently, 15th
Finance Commission Chairman N.K. Singh said India will see a sharp V-shaped
recovery in the third and fourth quarters of the current fiscal... not necessarily
because anything fundamental will happen or may happen but because of a lower
base. And that FY21 GDP growth would be in negative territory on “serious
demand and supply dislocations”.
But, the economy has to show resilience and move on...
Talking of resilience, the sheer buoyancy of seaborne iron ore prices can be
attributed to China’s voracious appetite post lock-down and supply disruptions
from Brazil. Our cover story on pg. 34 tracks the iron ore scene, global and local.
In India, the segment is poised for a change, where supply dynamics are shifting
from merchant miners to the mills themselves. Prices are expected to stay
subdued in the short term on supply tightness.
Intervista, on pg. 54, caught up with Ruchika Govil, Joint Secretary, Ministry of
Steel, who dwells on key topics ranging from Odisha iron ore auctions to scrap,
the secondary sector and a lot more.
Coal360, on pg. 10, probes BCCL’s new coal washing technologies and focuses on
ECL, on pg. 50 which is targeting quality along with quantity.
Impact, on pg. 20, turns the spotlight on corporates designing infrastructure to
fight COVID-19.
Where is the auto sector graph headed? We track it in Industry,
on pg. 46.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!

Several prognostications over the last fortnight gave dour indications of stifled
growth. S&P Global said the economy was “in deep trouble” and expected growth
to contract 5% in the current fiscal before rebounding in 2021. Moody's Investor
Service further downgraded its growth forecast for India to -3.1% this calendar
compared to 0.2% in April, although it expects a marginally stronger rebound at
6.9% in 2021, as opposed to 6.2% in the April update. ADB expects growth to
contract 4% this fiscal and warns countries in “Developing Asia” would “barely
grow” in 2020. Editor - Technology
Nirmalya Deb
Analysts say, the reasons could be constraints in containing the virus and lack of
consumer demand that are impacting businesses while the struggle continues as
India remains a long way from developing herd immunity and an effective remedy
is still elusive.
Like other steel players, Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited felt the suffocating impact
of COVID-19 from mid-March. Exports held out a ray of hope. In our cover story
on pg. 39 we zero in on RINL CMD Pradosh Kumar Rath to learn how the steel
PSU is looking to unlock opportunities post-lockdown.
We start a new section, Coal360, where, on and off, we turn the spotlight on
issues plaguing the fossil fuel. In this issue, on pg. 12, BCCL CMD P.M. Prasad
tells us about the company’s contingency plans to combat the impact of the viral
outbreak on domestic coking coal. Also, on pg. 27, we take a close look at the
PSU’s Moonidih washery’s green operating environment.
World View explores on pg. 06 the scrap demand terrain in Bangladesh and
Pakistan.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!

SAIL-ing Against the Pandemic Wind Phew, what a phase the country is passing through. COVID-19 infections cross
1.65 lakh and counting. A super-cyclone ravaged West Bengal and another storm is racing towards the western coast. Last heard, marauding locusts were thronging towards Rajasthan and Maharashtra with Chhattisgarh on alert. Not to
speak of the sustained lockdown that might force the Indian economy to contract 5% in FY21 as per Fitch Ratings. Despite infections rising, the government is grappling with a difficult proposition, of whether to lift the lockdown, or, to what
extent? The inevitable question of livelihood over lives sticks its fuzzy neck out in a classic chicken-and-egg riddle.
However, steel behemoth Steel Authority of India (SAIL) is swimming against the tide. It is upbeat of a demand and price rebound and inventory liquidation post-lockdown. But, the pandemic, says SAIL Chairman Anil Kumar Chaudhary, will
usher in long-standing industry changes. He tells a lot more in our Cover Story on pg.40.Impact on pgs. 52 and 62 traces the COVID-19 and reverse migration upshot on steel MSMEs, construction, real estate and cement. Supply chain disruptions,
liquidity concerns, labour availability are key challenges.
The government’s INR 20 lakh crore stimulus package created a stir but tranche IV reforms met with mixed reactions as Industry found out on pg. 06. A report, on pg. 32 from The Foundation of Resource Convergence, spearheaded by former Steel Secretary Dr Aruna Sharma stresses on a holistic approach to policy-making. Starting with this issue, Industry will carry the report, whose
contents can act as valuable inputs for the revised National Mineral Policy, in a three-part series. Intervista, on pg.16, zeroes in on Electrosteel Steels CEO Pankaj Malhan’s thoughts on the COVID-19 impact on steel. Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!...

After beginning on a strong note, coal imports to India started feeling the
COVID-19 heat from March 2020 onwards. Coking coal imports were
considerably affected, as berthing and uploading activities were halted at several
key ports and, with all the major steel mills having scaled down their operations,
demand was low. Australian prices continued to decline throughout last month, as
Asia's major consumer regions of India, Japan and South Korea, saw muted buying
interest amid coronavirus-induced production cuts by multiple steel makers
outside of China. In steam coal, consignments from Indonesia and South Africa
were hit. While Indonesia miners continue to produce and are upbeat on
maintaining the average selling price, exports from South Africa, which, like India,
went into lockdown, have been impacted. Of RBCT’s total 5-6 MnT of thermal
coal exports, 60% come to India. With the virus-induced collapse in industrial
demand for power in Europe, as well as global logistics issues, there can be
serious supply and demand disruptions in the coming months. In India too,
lockdown blues resulted in power demand declining 25-35% in the first half of
April and will continue to remain low till industrial activity resumes fully. Our
Cover Story on pg. 40 takes a 360-degree look at the COVID-19 impact on coal.
In Intervista, on pg. 30, the spotlight is on Malay Mukherjee, Independent Non-
Executive Director, JSW Steel, who feels the sheer magnitude and complexity of
the COVID-19 crisis is unparalleled. Severely disrupted global logistics will
contribute to the growth challenges across sectors.
World View, our international section, on pgs. 36 and 56,
explores the steel demand outlook in China, where inventory
levels have piled up.

As the world officially enters a recession with the IMF declaring so recently, on
the back of the rapid spread of the horrific COVID-19, the Indian steel industry
has gone into respiratory distress, with almost the entire secondary sector having
come to a standstill while the primary producers have curtailed output. Both
moves have reduced capacity utilisation to a mere 30% at present. In any case,
whom will the mills sell to? Both construction and automobiles, which contribute
to over 70% of steel consumption, have come to a grinding halt. Analysts reason
that demand is not going to pick up before Q3. Our Cover Story on pg. 16
explores the COVID-19 conundrum.
In ExperTalk, on pg. 24, Dr Manish Lunker too dwells on the virus impact. Even at
a conservative estimate, if there has been a 20-25% disruption in Chinese
domestic steel consumption in three months, this would result in an extra
inventory accumulation of 30-40 MnT, which is likely to find its way into nearby
Asian markets soon.
In Guest Column, on pg. 10, Dr Aruna Sharma, former Secretary, Ministry of
Steel, GoI, explores what derailed India’s growth story - possibly, knee-jerk
reactions to issues rather than long-term policy reforms.
Intervista, on pg. 05, turns the spotlight on Mandeep Singh, CEO & ED, JSL
Lifestyle, who talks about creating an aspirational stainless steel culture in India.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!

VOL VIII ISSUE 09 MARCH 2020
Coal Comfort ?
Coal India’s production figures are of interest to the steel sector since coking coal is a key raw material for manufacturing the commodity while steam coal is used in making sponge iron. Production volumes were at 46.59 MnT and a dismal 34.77 MnT in May and August, 2019 respectively, on the back of an extended monsoon. However, output started rebounding November onwards it seems. But worrisome is the fact that coking production is expected to drop from 54.65 MnT in 2017 to a provisional 19.26 MnT over April-September, 2020. Our Cover Story on pg. 40 caught up with A.K. Jha, the outgoing Chairman at CIL at the time of the interview, for a tete-a-tete, who feels, realistically, 660 MnT targeted for the current fiscal is not achievable because it is not possible to wipe out the large backlog of the first half of the fiscal, but assures that certainly the gap is narrowing.
Keeping in focus SteelMint’s 3rd Steel & Raw Material Conference, 2020 - Emerging Markets Bangladesh, we turn the Intervista spotlight on Sufi Mohammed Mizanur Rahman, Founder Chairman of the PHP Family on pg. 48. We also check out BSRM Group MD Aameir Alihussain’s opinion on Bangladesh’s steel industry in World View on pg. 12.
The deadly Coronavirus is on the rampage and questions do arise as to how it will impact the steel industry’s health since Hubei, from where the germ emanated, is the sixth-largest steel-making province in China. Impact tries to guage the initial damage on pg. 06.
We traverse to Raipur in search of People on pg. 18, and meet Amit Agrawal from the Hira Group’s 2nd generation.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!
Madhumita Mookerji
editor@steel-360.com

VOL VIII ISSUE 08 FEBRUARY 2020
RNI: CHHBIL/2013/53990
Postal Regn No CG/RYP DN/87/2018-20
www.steel-360.com
EDITOR’S NOTE
 @360steel Steel 360
Red Haze!
Odisha’s historic mines auctions are looming large. With 19 leases up for expiry
on March 31, mine owners are working backwards to beat the clock, kicking up a
swirling red haze in the process. Will the auctions iron out the wrinkles of raw
material insecurity or lead to fresh blood and iron tactics? Will prices rise, driving
up imports? Will there be supply disruptions? With aggressive bids, will the new
market movers be the large captive users controlling a sizeable 22-25 MnT?
SteelMint, the sister concern of Steel360, mobilised reporters at ground zero, for
a first-hand account of the frenzy unfolding in India’s iron ore capital. Our cover
story on pg. 40 takes an incisive look at the Odisha narrative.
India’s iron ore production in CY 2019 surpassed 231 MnT against CY18’s 204.7
MnT, up 12.9%. Odisha’s share was a chunky 130.04 MnT or 56.29%. We dig
deep into data to come up with a 360-degree look at India’s iron ore’s
performance in CY19. Turn to pg. 32 to read the story.
The spotlight lingers on Odisha. It accounts for 98% of India’s chromite reserves,
97% of which lies in Sukinda. Its de-reservation may see aggressive bids and price
volatility. We explore the chrome ore dynamics on pg. 10.
Intervista, on pg. 56, turns the arc lights on Koushik Chatterjee, ED & CFO, Tata
Steel, who is upbeat that the steel up-cycle is beginning.
World View explores on pg. 06 the steel scenario in neighbouring Bangladesh
through the eyes of Sanjoy Ghosh, Head of Supply Chain at
BSRM, the country’s oldest steel mill.
Madhumita Mookerji
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!

Vision 2020!

How will the steel story unfold in the new calendar?
Uppermost in our minds are the mineral auctions and the impending threat of
disruptions in iron ore supply. That apart, factors like capacity ramp-ups and
government plans to boost steel demand will play key roles. Automotive,
construction & infrastructure and home appliances will be important players
propelling steel sector growth in India. Prices, having bottomed out, can only
correct themselves in the new year. Get a peek into the future in our Cover Story
on pg 38.
World’s largest steel maker ArcelorMittal gets a foothold in India via the
acquisition of Essar Steel, the formalities of which were completed in December.
Intervista zoomed in, a couple of weeks before the deal closure, on Dilip
Oommen, CEO of the new entity, ArcelorMittal Nippon Steel India, that will own
and operate Essar Steel. Read the interview on pg 06.
World View, on pg 16, turns the spotlight on Pakistan’s expanding scrap demand
and on Khatib Sons International’s co-founder, Hafiz-ur Rahman Khatib and his
son, Munif-ur-Rehman. They feel steel demand in India’s neighboring country
will increase once government-funded infra projects kick-off.
Alkaline water, marshy areas and salt-laced coastlines provide a corrosive
environment for railway tracks in India. Hence, Railways is training its lens, on pg
12, on galvanized or zinc-coated rails that are an INR 1,400-crore opportunity.
Steel mills’ hopes can gain steam from Coal India’s assurance on
pg 60 that the sector is a priority for the coal behemoth and
that 2 MnT of coking coal have been earmarked for tranche V of
the linkage auctions.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read! :)

In Reverse Gear
The economy literally went into reverse gear with the July-September, 2019
quarter GDP dropping to 4.5%, a 2.6% fall compared to the Q2 in the previous
fisc. And how did the steel landscape look in the year that was? Bleak. Domestic
steel prices crashed 10% across January-August. Private sector investment
backed down on liquidity tightness, dull demand and weak exports. Infrastructure
activity slowed due to the general elections, casting a long shadow. Decelerated
auto sales kept sentiments flat. Naturally, most steel companies' Q2 results took a
hit while a heavy monsoon water-logged demand further. Read our Cover Story
on pg. 36.
In these hard times, operational efficiency is the key. Technology traces on
pg. 56 the process of reducing capex, using 100% iron ore fines.
It's an impressive line-up of 176 bids as Odisha resumes its mineral auctions for
the first 10 blocks after more than a year. It's a classic case of too many miners,
too few mines.
In People, on pg. 20, we converse with Nakoda Group boss Virendra Goel who
spearheaded the growth of one of Chhattisgarh's leading TMT brands.
A corpus of INR 32,553.81 crore has accrued to the DMF out of which only INR
6,944 crore has been utilised. The road to benefit of the mining-affected is a long
one. Impact probes on pg. 16.
Gas-dependent Bangladesh is turning to coal on the back of
frenzied infrastructure demand, opening up a sea of
opportunities for exporters. World View catches the demand
drift on pg. 18.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!
Steel360 wishes its readers a very Merry Christmas
and a Happy New Year.

EDITOR'S NOTE
VOL VIII ISSUE 05 NOVEMBER 2019

The lynchpin of a circular economy is the principle of “reduce, reuse, recycle”, on which also hinge some emerging steel technologies. Our cover story on pg 36 focuses on three disruptive technologies which take that defining leap to the next-gen innovation frontier where fossil fuel is not only being replaced with natural gases but also being recycled for producing eco-friendly materials on an industrial scale. One such technology is about growing microbes on BF gas residues to produce ethanol. Second is using hydrogen to replace fossils like coal to reduce iron, where the emission is water! Third is using low-grade iron ore fines, steam coal and oxygen to replace polluting BF gases with emission rates said to be lowest among pioneering steel technologies.

Around 30% of global steel production is via the EAF route but one issue plaguing the segment is early outflow of slag. Steel Innovation on pg 50 focuses on ways to tackle this problem.

Is Chhattisgarh experiencing saturation in its core sector? Is there a need for a vital push from a few key projects to take the state to the next level of development? Impact takes a look on pg 10. Intervista on pg 14 turns the spotlight on M.C. Thomas, Executive in Charge, FAMD, Tata Steel, who predicts ore supplies will not keep pace with the demand for ferro chrome. Hence, ore & alloys prices will remain high in the short, medium terms.

worldsteel revised upwards its October 2019 SRO for steel demand, but on the back of Chinese demand. Consumption is stagnating in developed economies while developing countries emit mixed signals. Read the full report on pg 18.

Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!

Flat steel sales, scrap output hit a bump

There is a bloodbath in autoville. Barring October 2018, domestic passenger
vehicle sales have been in slowdown mode since July last year, which means more
than a year's agony for the country's auto manufacturers. Such a scenario is
bound to have an impact on two areas. One is sales of flat steels and two, scrap
generation from new vehicle manufacturing. Cover story traces this auto graph on
pg. 38.

In Intervista, we turn the spotlight on Rahul Mittal on pg. 48 who recently took
over as Chairman of the Sponge Iron Manufacturers Association, and expects a
lot of investments to happen in DRI-based mini integrated plants. In a tête-à-tête
with Zubein Buhariwalla, CEO of Federal Engineers, on pg. 18, we learnt their
machines do not need maintenance contracts.

There is healthy demand for Indian-origin pellets by Chinese steel makers.
Based on the exports numbers reported in Q1, FY20, it is likely that India's pellets
production and exports will surpass the FY19 figures. Read this Product story on
pg. 30.

Tepid domestic demand forced Turkey, the world's largest scrap importer, to
turn to exports. But here too protectionism from the US and Europe turned this
measure into an uphill task. World View traces the vagaries of the steel industry
in this country straddling east Europe and West Asia. Details are on pg. 22.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!

EDITOR'S NOTE
VOL VIII ISSUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2019

Iron ore in a bear hug

Iron ore prices, after sky-rocketing to a five-year high in July, 2019, slumped in mid-August, signaling end of the bull run. Price swings are not new. But factors like the ongoing geo-political dynamics, supply constraints and concomitant market forces had a profound impact on the price curve. Now, prices are slated to linger in bear territory, on the back of ample supplies and stern curbs slapped on steel mills in Hebei. Interestingly, home-grown producers have bucked the trend, reasoning that domestic prices have been conventionally lower than the global benchmarks. For an in-depth look at the iron ore conundrum, turn to our cover story on pg. 38.

Demand-supply fluctuations have kept prices of another key raw material, coking coal, depressed, which is good news for India – it imports three-fourth of its requirement. Chinese mills too are happy since CFR prices are lower than the domestic versions. However, traders are treading cautiously, due to anti-import measures. We trace the dynamics on pg. 12. Talking about China, this Asian giant is showing a voracious appetite for imported semis and metallics. World View, our international section, delves deep into the story. Details are on pg. 30.

The China factor resurfaces again. Granulated pig iron is the next big thing here, what with mills across the BF, EAF and IF platforms showing a keen interest in the material. And, JSPL just may be having the first-mover advantage in exporting consignments to China, Malaysia and Bangladesh. The story unfolds on pg. 64. Intervista turns the spotlight on RINL CMD P.K. Rath, who, at present, is focused on expansion targets and cost economics. Turn to pg. 16 for the full interview. Plus, we focus on a lot more.

Enjoy the read!

Madhumita Mookerji
editor@steel-360.com

GE-tting the hang of China’s graphite
electrodes market!
Wending through the dynamics of China’s graphite electrodes market requires
more intricate steps than, perhaps, its dragon dances! The country has emerged
as the market-mover where GE prices are concerned. Are scrap prices likely to
further head south, amid tepid demand for finished steel? In this issue, our cover
story module focuses on GE, scrap and DRI in anticipation of SteelMint’s
upcoming 4th Steel Scrap, Billet & DRI Summit & 2nd Global Graphite Electrode
Conference, 2019. For an extended read, turn to pg. 38.
Impact delves deep into the NMDC-CMDC Bailadilah Deposit 13 impasse.
Mining has been stopped by the Chhattisgarh government, while AEL says it will
initiate activity only after the mandatory requirements are met by the mine
owners. For a 360 degree view, turn to pg. 28. While on the topic of iron ore,
miners are worried over the MMDR Act cap on iron ore lease areas. Details are
on pg. 06.
From this issue, Nikunj Turakhia, President & CEO, Standard Group India &
President, SUFI, will offer his take on key steel industry issues. Read Expertalk on
pg. 16.
Is it time for India to protect its steel against US aggression? Guest Column on
pg. 52 explores how protectionist measures defeat the prime objectives of the
WTO. Anomalous isn’t it?
Our Technology section is rich in information on hot metal pretreatment, CCS
and how Emirates Steel is moving towards zero waste through a slag
management deal with ECOFER.
Plus, we focus on a lot more. Enjoy the read!
Madhumita Mookerji
editor@steel-360.com

January 2022

December 2021

November 2021

October 2021

September 2021

August 2021

July 2021

June 2021

May 2021

April 2021

March 2021

February 2021

January 2021

December 2020

November 2020

October 2020

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Steel 360 Magazine - January 2019

Steel 360 Magazine - January 2019

In this issue

Steel 360 Magazine Description: