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Gold demand is likely to be healthy in the second half of 2018 on positive global economic growth, trade wars and its impact on currency and rising inflation. The second half of the year is usually positive for gold as the harvest and wedding seasons during the autumn provide seasonal support for the market. The festive season is arriving close by and positive global cues coupled with domestic buying have lead to an uptick in gold outlook. The festive season has started with Dusshera and Diwali round the corner. Consumers are keeping a close watch on the escalating gold prices and hoping that the gold price would stabilise soon. The quarter ending in December typically accounts for about a third of India’s gold sales since it includes the start of the wedding season and festivals like Dhanteras and Diwali, when buying gold is considered auspicious. The Reserve Bank of India has amended the Gold Monetisation Scheme (GMS) 2015, whereby deposits can be placed with banks for broken periods such as one year three months, or 13 years four months 15 days. Banks are now free to fix the interest rates on GMS which are for short period of one to three years. Industry experts are of the view that success of GMS can be a game changer to reduce CAD and unlock the value of idle gold lying with Indian households.

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